#BuiltAroundAdversity

In the last few years, we've faced a number of events which have impacted our lives drastically. Most people suffer as these events force us to change the way we live and approach our regular lives.

On the bright side, these changes become a boon for certain startup sectors, pushing startups into a hyper growth cycle. Be it Demonetization which put Digital Payment providers like Paytm into fifth gear, or be it the current Covid pandemic which has propelled Edtech/Epharmacy/Eretail or other "E" sectors into hyper growth.

This brings us down to a question, should startups look to build around a pain-point which may not be as severe at present, but is likely to escalate down the line. Some examples can be

- increasing crime due to a slowdown and unemployment

- targeting of a particular religious group

- the Govt. cracking down on other personal assets like jewelery, gold

- major cities not having water to sustain

Building with this view, it sounds a bit like a gamble, but who knows!!!

How I lost my 20s to Compulsive Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship is a buzz word which is attracting a lot of the younger lot today. With the successes of startups like Google, Facebook etc., college students as well as young professionals are looking for gaps to launch their startup. They feel that they too can find an interesting opportunity and scale their companies. On the one hand, this is an extremely positive and equitable environment for all to launch a business. On the other, if entrepreneurship is not done right with the right mindset and planning, it can prove to be a waste of time and resources.

Compulsive Entrepreneurship is one such mistake budding entrepreneurs can make. Eager to be entrepreneurs jump into ventures without a plan for success. I have been guilty of this and would like to share my experiences with this booklet of mine. This booklet is meant for all budding entrepreneurs and fresh graduates.

Read the book here.

The 10 Step Problem Solving Approach

The following is a problem solving approach  I developed and have found it to be very useful.

1. State the high level problem in 1 sentence

2. Quantify the problem by using metrics

3. Identify key terms in the problem statement from 2. above

4. State all factors which can affect the key terms identified in 3. above

(Based on factor identified, also identify any key people/parties involved)

5. Check trends in key factors

6. Prioritize factors (from 5.) which impact the problem statement in 2. above

7. Analyse each factor thoroughly (breakdown into smallest parts)

8. Propose solutions for different factors

9. Analyse solutions based on

a) Resources/effort required

b) Impact on key players

c) Priority of factor from 6. above

10. Prioritize solutions

a) Start with ones requiring low effort and have low impact ("picking the low hanging                     fruit")

b) For similar efforts & impacts, use priority as deciding factor

Let's take an example to show how the approach can be used in a practical scenario.

1. My school is losing money
2. School expenses are higher than school income
3. Key terms - school expenses, school income
4. School expenses - salaries, administrative expenses, interest
    School income - fees, no. of students
    Key People: Salaries - teachers, admin staff, transport staff; Interest - banks; Income -                          parents/students
5. Monthly salaries have gone by 25% in the last 12 months, administrative expenses by 8% and              interest is the same. School income is flat in the period.
6. Priority - salaries, admin expenses, interest/school income
7. Salaries = staff*salary = (teaching staff + admin staff + transport staff)*salary
    No. of admin staff has gone up by 20% for same amount of work
    Admin expenses = facility expenses + transport expenses
    Transport expenses have increased by 10% due to higher diesel expenses
8. Proposed solutions
     a) Reduce admin staff by reallocating work
     b) Outsource some admin work to bring efficiency and cost saving
     c) Optimize transport routing using GPS
     d) Switch some buses to CNG
9.
Reduce admin staff - LOW effort required, HIGH impact on key players due to increase workload and panic of losing job, HIGH as salaries are the highest priority
Outsource admin work - LOW resources required, MEDIUM impact on key players because of staff panic, HIGH as salaries are the highest priority
Optimize transport routing - MEDIUM resources required due to new GPS and routing optimization system, LOW impact on key players, MEDIUM as transport is not the highest priority
Switch some buses to CNG - HIGH resources required, LOW impact on key players, MEDIUM as transport is not the highest priority
10. Solutions proposed
     a) Outsource some admin work
     b) Reduce admin staff if possible after a)
     c) Optimize routing for transport
     d) Switch some buses to CNG

Subscription Revenues; On-Demand Expenses

Note: Businesses should look at moving towards a model for recurring inflows while they should making their expenses as variable as possible.

Social Media Changes the Landscape of the Legal Discovery Process

As the internet has increased our ability to communicate and share information, the volume of electronically stored information (ESI) has multiplied exponentially. As a result, ESI has become a routine and critical component of litigation.

In 1986, the US Congress enacted the Stored Communications Act (SCA) to provide Fourth Amendment protections for ESI. The discovery process now includes “e-discovery,” which allows litigants to demand copies of ESI when relevant to a case. For cross-border litigation, this means professional translations becomes essential. The laws regarding ESI also pertain to businesses in that they must be all the more watchful and cautious of what is shared online.

Social Media Expands Discovery Opportunities

Online communications have become second nature for individuals and businesses. Blogs, websites, databases, and email are all part of ESI now and accessible through the discovery process in court. The evidentary value to lawsuits of all kinds, from personal injury to family matters, cannot be underestimated.

The online nature of evidence goes beyond the their textual content. Date-stamping, authorship, key-logging and more all fall under the umbrella of discovery now. Courts have even allowed disclosure demands for passwords to protected material. Considering the international nature of the world in which we currently live, the need for legal language translators has become integral to e-discovery, too.

Discovery Must Become Social Media-Savvy

Companies large and small are leveraging the web for marketing and communications. Among the Fortune 100, at least a third maintain active blogs, over half have Facebook pages, and nearly three-quarters have a Twitter account. Increasingly, this material is also translated into foreign languages to serve local markets, requiring more retention and the need for translation services.

All this ESI comes with the legal requirement to save and store it. Often, this is done using digital means.

Companies have legal duty to preserve ESI. The legal system has taken steps to enforce compliance with e-discovery rules and come down hard on litigants who have deleted, altered, or tampered with ESI.

Individuals Can Be At e-Discovery Risk

Anything someone says, writes, or stores in a digital format might someday become relevant to a court case. With the ease of deleting, and the fact that it is often routine habit, it is tempting to delete ESI when faced with a lawsuit. Individuals should be aware that deleting potential evidence is a crime that can result in severe penalties.

The best way to avoid this situation is to not post potentially harmful information in the first place. If an individual or business doesn’t want certain information to end up in a lawsuit, it should not be posted.

The Complications of a Multilingual, Online World

Companies that specialize in e-discovery bring a high level of expertise to finding and acquiring ESI relevant to court cases. To meet the challenge, they can also provide sophisticated language translations services.

The informal nature of social media materials are particularly difficult from a translation point of view. Professional legal translations capture unique information and provide accurate representations of foreign language content that might be crucial in court.

The Demand for e-Discovery Grows Daily

The stakes are high for the legal industry to utilize translations in their ESI discovery process. Facebook has close to two billion users. Twitter users post over 500 million tweets daily. LinkedIn is available in 20 different languages. The market for e-discovery software and services has a value over $8 billion and that figure is expected to rise to over $21 billion in the next five years.

The sheer volume alone requires professional services to search, collect, and translate this information into a useable, legal format. If individuals and businesses are not prudent in their postings, anything might end up in court and be a resource for the prosecution.

Bio of the Author:

Sirena Rubinoff is the Content Manager at Morningside Translations. She earned her B.A. and Master’s Degree from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern. After completing her graduate degree, Sirena won an international fellowship as a Rotary Cultural Ambassador to Jerusalem. Sirena covers topics related to software and website localization, global business solutions, and the translation industry as a whole.

Pricing a Cryptocurrency: Reddcoin

CRYPTOCURRENCY: Reddcoin

DESCRIPTION OF BLOCKCHAIN APPLICATION: Reddcoin is a digital currency which can be integrated with all major social media platforms to make payments and transfer money between users. It is based on the Blockchain and has an innovative “Proof of Stake Velocity” algorithm driving it.

MAIN USE-CASE: Using Blockchain to disrupt the payments through social media platforms.

TOTAL DEMAND: According to a research by Juniper Research, the global digital payments market will reach USD 3.6 trillion in 2016. Cards will account for 90% of these payments. Based on the increasing popularity of payments through social media, we can assume atleast 1% of the total payments will be made through social media (the rest can be wallets).  This implies a potential demand of USD 36 billion.

TOTAL SUPPLY: Currently, there are 28.55 billion Reddcoins in circulation (growing at 5% annually).

RISK FACTOR: A lot of risks exist in this project.

*Regulatory Risk: Medium to High, as transfers can be national or international. The coin’s utility to purely to transfer money between people.

**Utility Risk: Medium, social payments itself is slowly picking steam. Trust is a crucial factor and a new entrant will find it very challenging to penetrate this market.

**Platform Risk: Low to Medium, as the coin uses a new and innovative Proof of Stake Velocity algorithm. This ensures fast block approvals, which is a big limitation of leading cryptocurrencies.

**Execution Risk: High, as I could not get enough information on the team behind the Reddcoin.

Based on the above, the Risk Factor for this startup can be (2*0+2*0.33+2*0.33+2*0)/7 = 0.19

POTENTIAL MARKET SHARE WHICH CAN BE CAPTURED: 5% due to entry into a new and upcoming market.

TARGET PRICE FOR REDDCOIN: 36*5%*0.19/28.55 = USD 0.012

(*I do not have any Reddcoins. This is purely my estimate for this cryptocurrency and I arrive at it using a very simplistic approach.)

Pricing a CryptoCurrency: Game Credits

CRYPTOCURRENCY: GameCredits

DESCRIPTION OF BLOCKCHAIN APPLICATION: GameCredits is a cryptocurrency based on a gaming gateway built on the Blockchain. It aims to make in-game payments seamless, easy and secure. The main advantages include player anonymity, easy integration with games, more deposit options for local as well as international games and the security and immutability advantages of the Blockchain.

MAIN USE-CASE: Using Blockchain to disrupt the In-Game Payment Market.

TOTAL DEMAND: According to market researcher Newzoo, the global game revenues are expected to grow to USD 128.5 billion. This is almost entirely through user spending on games, and not advertising revenue.

TOTAL SUPPLY: 84 million GameCredits.

RISK FACTOR: A lot of risks exist in this project.

*Regulatory Risk: Low, as closed application of credits suggests productive use of cryptocurrency. International transfers may get some regulatory attention.

**Utility Risk: Low, as there does exists a strong use-case based on the core advantage of the Blockchain technology, i.e. decentralized and hence cost effective.

**Platform Risk: Medium, as the Blockchain itself does not seem risky. However, adoption by gaming companies and integration with different systems might be a challenge. Along with the interoperability issue, scalability might be a concern as gaming involves small but frequent micro-payments. Also some gaming companies might prefer private Blockchain solutions to keep their users sticky and to build customer loyalty.

**Execution Risk: Medium to High, as though GameCredits has a strong team of technology and business people from the Gaming Industry. However, it will have to face powerful incumbents to gain market-share. Competitors like Apply Pay, Visa etc. have established a very strong foothold in the payment space. Getting market-share from these companies will be tough. Price competitiveness would be a major factor to get market share.

Based on the above, the Risk Factor for this startup can be (0.67+2*0.67+2*0.33+2*0)/7 = 0.38

POTENTIAL MARKET SHARE WHICH CAN BE CAPTURED: 5% due to distributed Gaming Industry.

TARGET PRICE FOR LBRY CREDITS: 128.5*5%*0.38/0.084 = USD 29.07

(*I do not have any GameCredits. This is purely my estimate for this cryptocurrency and I arrive at it using a very simplistic approach.)

Pricing a CryptoCurrency: LBRY Credits

CRYPTOCURRENCY: LBRYCredits

DESCRIPTION OF BLOCKCHAIN APPLICATION: LBRY is a content sharing platform built on a native Blockchain. It aims to connect content creators to content consumers directly and payments will flow from the latter to the former through LBRY Credits. I like this cryptocurrency as it is based on a solid use-case.

MAIN USE-CASE: Using Blockchain to disrupt the Paid-Content Market.

TOTAL DEMAND: The Paid Content Market in 2017 is estimated to be USD 180 bn (source: article byJuniper Research). This includes digital content like videos, music, games, articles etc. LBRY intends to target this market and capture this value. Owing to strong incumbents and being conservative, we can say that LBRY might be able to gather upto 10% of this value in due course. Also we can ignore growth of this space to be extra conservative and get a as-is-where-is value.

TOTAL SUPPLY: 1 bn. LBRY Credits will be available at the end of 20 years of the project.

RISK FACTOR: A lot of risks exist in this project.

Regulatory Risk: Low, as closed application of credits suggests productive use of cryptocurrency.

Utility Risk: Low, as there does exists a strong use-case based on the core advantage of the Blockchain technology, i.e. decentralized and hence cost effective.

Platform Risk: Medium, as the Blockchain itself does not seem risky. However, certain features like an ongoing public action of domain names on the LBRY network is a risky one for content publishers.

Execution Risk: Medium to High, as though LBRY has a strong team, it will have to face powerful incumbents to gain market-share. Competitors like Netflix, Spotify, Youtube, iTunes etc. have established a very string foothold built on strong content and excellent customer experience. Getting market-share from these companies will be tough. However, small content creators might find it useful to go with the LBRY project in return for more control over the returns on their content. Slowly, this trend could pick up and spread.

Based on the above, the Risk Factor for this startup can be (0.67+0.67+0.33+0)/4 = 0.41

TARGET PRICE FOR LBRY CREDITS: 180*10%*0.41/1 = USD 7.51*

(*I do not have any LBRY Credits. This is purely my estimate for this cryptocurrency and I arrive at it using a very simplistic approach.)

Investing in a Cryptocurrency

I believe the Blockchain is a truly revolutionary technology which can impact many industries in the future. Crypto-tokens are essentially the store of value of a particular application of the Blockchain. Since the underlying technology is robust and sustainable, the currencies built on it are also the same.

To make an investment in a cryptocurrency, I would recommend the following steps:

1. Check out various currencies and read about the underlying Blockchain applications.

2. Shortlist a currency which has a clear, concise and understandable use-case. The use-case should be around a real world problem, where the application of the Blockchain has the potential to add value.

3. Read about the currency – the total supply, distribution structure, mining rewards, consensus mechanism etc.

4. Checkout the team behind the currency. The team should be a good mix of people having the necessary skills and experience to execute.

5. If all seems fine, go further. Else go back to Step 2.

6. Try to arrive at a fundamental value for the currency. Check out my post on this. If this is difficult to do, check out any comparable currencies and compare their metrics (price and quantity traded) to arrive at a value.

7. If the market value is fairly below the fundamental value calculated above (atleast 30-40%), INVEST!

Invest in CryptoCurrencies. Don't Gamble in Them!

Pricing a CryptoCurrency

Cryptocurrencies have been getting a lot of attention lately. With increasing capitalizations of the major currencies in circulation now (like Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin etc.), investors are increasingly looking at making these currencies a part of their portfolios. Since retail investors can also invest in these currencies without restriction, understanding how these currencies are valued becomes crucial.

The value/price of a currency is based on the demand for the currency, the supply of the currency and risks associated with the currency.

Demand of the Currency

A cryptocurrency is generally a token which is issued around an operation which happens in the background. The demand for the currency is essentially the value which can be generated through the operation backing it up.

To arrive at this value, we need to start by identifying the major use cases of the currency. The next step is to quantify these use cases with regards to the value for customers they can potentially generate. Taking an example of the Bitcoin, one major use case was that Bitcoins can be used to transfer money abroad at a significantly lower cost and time. To calculate the value of this use case, we can estimate the total amount of money which gets transferred internationally around the world. We can then add a haircut on it to take into account that some countries do not allow Bitcoins and also that only some customers might migrate to this solution. This final value will constitute the demand for the Bitcoin for this use case.

Values for all major uses cases of a currency are calculated and added to arrive at a final value of demand for the currency. A small premium might be given to a generic coin like the Bitcoin which may have a large number of other not-as-big use cases.

Supply of the Currency

Most cryptocurrencies tend to have a limit on their lifetime supply. For example, the Bitcoin has a limited supply quantity of 21 million coins.

The Risk Factor

Now that we have calculated the present demand and potential supply of the currency, we need to assess the risks in the future. Some major risks may include the following:

Regulatory Risk: Currencies like the Bitcoin which target a big and systemically important use case like international money transfers have significant regulatory risk attached to them. Different countries will have different regulations to deal with such coins. These regulations will determine how much of the potential value of the currency can be realized.

Utility Risk: A cryptocurrency is as valuable as the utility of the operation behind it. Use cases which are not sustainable and have a high risk of substitution add utility risk to the cryptocurrency’s value.

Platform Risk: The Blockchain is an evolving technology. Different Blockchains face different challenges and these might affect a currency built on it to achieve its potential value. For example, the Bitcoin Blockchain is facing problems of scalability and security. Hard forks (major changes) are being suggested to counter these problems. This has caused the Bitcoin community to divide and is causing problems in the Blockchain.

Security Risk: Blockchains face security risks both from outside and the inside. Hackers & interested parties may try to attack and alter the working of the Blockchain. Also within a Blockchain, some stakeholders like miners might try to collude and gain control of the Blockchain for their own benefit. The Bitcoin Blockchain has been facing a security issues. Some Bitcoin exchanges got hacked. Also there is a risk of miners colluding as a majority of miners are centralized in China.

Execution Risk: A coin may have a good plan backing it. But can the plan be executed? This is particularly important in the case of Initial Coin Offerings, when most coins raise funding with a prototype or just a whitepaper about them. The team behind the coin issue plays a big role in the assessment of execution risks.

These risks need to be included in the price of a cryptocurrency. A discount factor can be applied to the fundamental value of the currency to account for these risks.

To summarise, the price of a cryptocurrency is the following:

Price of Cryptocurrency = (Demand of Currency / Supply of Currency)*Risk Factor

Pick the Right Industry

source: statisticbrain

THE CUSTOMER SEGMENT CANVAS

To analyse any business, in addition to the Use-Case Canvas, it is important to analyse the various customer segments targeted by the business. To do so, we can use a 'Customer Segment Canvas' which helps in identifying the various customer segments targeted by the business with details about the segment itself and the main value drivers for the particular segment.

Note: Every customer segment should be analysed using a separate canvas.

The Use-Case Canvas for Bloomon

Bloomon is an Amsterdam based flower delivery services startup. It sources flowers directly from the growers and offers subscription services to customers.

The Use-Case Canvas for 1 use-case of the company is shown below. The use-case in focus is where the company offers flower delivery services for occasions like birthdays, anniversaries etc.

Infographic on Blockchain Applications

The Use-Case Canvas for Bux

Bux is an Amsterdam based stock trading app. It offers quality content, a practice account for first timers and a platform with sophisticated tools for stock traders.

The Use-Case Canvas for 1 use-case of the company is shown below. The use-case in focus is where the company offers stock trading services to first timers.

The Use-Case Canvas for WhyDonate

WhyDonate is an Amsterdam based crowdfunding platform for social projects. It caters to non-profit organizations, fundraisers and social projects.

The Use-Case Canvas for 1 use-case of the company is shown below. The use-case in focus is where the company offers crowdfunding services to social projects.

The Use-Case Canvas for Symbid

Symbid is an Amsterdam based equity crowdfunding platform for companies.

The Use-Case Canvas for 1 use-case of the company is shown below. The use-case in focus is where the company offers equity crowdfunding services to startups.

The Use-Case Canvas for AdviceRobo

AdviceRobo is an Amsterdam based alternate credit scoring company offering credit scoring & lending portfolio risk management services for Banks & FIs. Credit scores are generated through identity check and psychometric tests.

The Use-Case Canvas for 1 use-case of the company is shown below. The use-case in focus is where the company offers credit scoring services for thin files to Banks & FIs.

The Use-Case Canvas for PaymentGenes

PaymentGenes is a Amsterdam based company offering consulting and recruitment services to Payment & Fintech companies.

The Use-Case Canvas for 1 use-case of the company is shown below. The use-case in focus is where the company offers consulting services to payment startups.

The 2 Types of Business Ideas

From the customer’s perspective, broadly all business ideas can be divided into 2 categories – the “Help Me” ideas and the “Show Me” ideas.

Help Me Ideas: These are business ideas which aim to solve a current pain-point of the customer. The customer is feeling a pain and the idea’s goal is to solve the same. For example, TripAdvisor was a business idea which aimed to solve the customer pain of not having enough and trusted information to make decisions about travel.

Show Me Ideas: These ideas, on the other hand, have a goal to enlighten customers about how things can also be done. The customer may be reasonably happy with the solution which is already available in the market. The Show Me Idea will show the customer a better way to do the same thing. For example, Uber would be a classical example which was able to provide a better customer experience using technology.

Having said the above, all ideas of a particular category also have certain elements of the other category. A Help Me Idea will also partly play the role of a Show Me Idea and vice versa.

THE USE-CASE CANVAS

Building a product which customers may want is the key to good business idea. Hence working out Use Cases for your product is very essential. Once, you figure out the Use-Cases, analyzing them is also a must.

The Use-Case Canvas enables you to do that. It clearly defines the use-case, the market targeted, all external stakeholders and all other details which can help assess whether the use-case is strategically valuable and sustainable.

Note: The Canvas should be used for 1 use-case. Multiple use-cases should be analysed with multiple canvases.

Are You Guilty of Self-Validation?

This is a big bias entrepreneurs tend to have when starting up. I have been very guilty of this.

How do you know your business idea is good? Do you feel it or do your potential customers say that? A lot of the times we feel that there ‘should’ be a need which our product/service caters to. This should can be quite risky. Before proceeding with the idea, a proper validation is a must. Self-validation, i.e. validating the idea yourself, is a trap entrepreneurs often tend to fall into.

A proper and adequate validation involves doing the following:

Assessing whether a need exists: Some good ideas to do this are

- Talk to/survey potential customers

- Identify whether customers are interested in your product by analysing their current behavior

- Create a MVP and test out your hypothesis

- Conduct a comprehensive research (including primary and secondary research)

Is the market big enough: Try to estimate the potential market size the idea is catering to.

Will the customers be willing to pay for your product/service: Analyse whether your business idea has advantages and customer would be willing to pay for it.

This is very crucial as following up on an idea which has not been adequately and appropriately validated can result in waste of time, energy and resources.

Top Reasons Why Startups Fail

Startup Failure is considered a taboo in many parts of the world. However, it is a phenomenon which is highly prevalent and cannot be avoided. Nearly 90% of startups fail within the first 3 years of operations. Top 20 reasons why start-ups fail include the following:

#1 – Building a solution looking for a problem, i.e., not targeting a “market need”

#2 – Ran out of cash

#3 – Not the right team

#4 – Get out-competed

#5 – Pricing/Cost Issues

#6 – A “User Un-Friendly” Product

#7 – I got this product. Now I just need a business model.                

#8 – Poor Marketing

#9 – Being inflexible and not actively seeking or using customer feedback

#10 – Release product at the wrong time

#11 – Lose Focus

#12 – Disharmony with Investors/Co-founders

#13 – Pivot Gone Bad

#14 – Lack Passion and Domain Expertise

#15 – Location, Location, Location

#16 – No Financing or Interested Investors

#17 – Legal Challenges

#18 – Do not use your connections or network                

#19 – Burn Out

#20 – Failure to pivot when necessary

Source: CB Insights via Seraf Investor

The Power of the “Crowd”

We live in a world where customer is the king and her preferences are changing ever so quickly. For an entrepreneur, it becomes very difficult to understand customer preferences and requirements and to find a good product-market fit in the process. Hence in this world we are living in, tapping into the “Crowd” makes complete sense.

The “Crowd” refers to a mass of people who may be connected or not connected to you. Crowdholding is a platform which tries to connect entrepreneurs with the “Crowd” so that they can derive the host of benefits the latter has to offer.

The benefits of the “Crowd” are listed below.

Diverse Opinions – The “Crowd” is a heterogeneous lot of people coming from different backgrounds and demographics. They all come together as they have 1 common interest – engaging with entrepreneurs around their business ideas. This ensures that suggestions and opinions received by entrepreneurs on the platform are diverse and focus on different areas of the business.

Unbiased Feedback – Since the entrepreneur has no previous attachment with the people engaging with his/her business idea, the feedback received can be safely assumed as unbiased.

Implied Agreement – Any opinions which are reiterated time and again can serve as implied agreements by the “Crowd”. Since these implied agreements are opinions of a number of people, the entrepreneur can use the same in further design and development of the product.

Statistically Significant – Even statistically, data collected from a bigger sample of people has more significance when compared with data collected from fewer persons. This data collected can be analysed by clubbing into categories and trends can be identified which again can be used in product development.

Cheaper – Finally Crowdsourcing feedback and ideas consumes lesser time and lower cost when compared with other means to do so.

So if you are a budding entrepreneur and have a business idea, put it on Crowdholding and let the Power of the Crowd assist you in realizing your dream.